Front Running: BTC Markets Are Driving PM Growth
Prediction markets news and insight from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming—ahead of the crowd.
Welcome to Front Running, the prediction markets newsletter from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.
The following data and insight comes from our new Predictions Markets Intelligence vertical. For subscription options and sample reports, contact Simon Krejcik at skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com.
1. CHART OF THE WEEK: BTC MARKETS ARE DRIVING PM GROWTH
The chart above, taken from our latest Prediction Market Monitor, shows Kalshi volume mix by category. A clear pattern is emerging: sports and short-resolution crypto markets are driving the vast majority of volume.
It’s well known that sports has been the core driver of Kalshi’s meteoric rise. In 3Q-4Q25, sports accounted for roughly 90% of Execution Volume.
Since the turn of the year, however, Kalshi’s mix has evolved into a sports-plus-crypto story, with short-resolution Bitcoin markets emerging as a primary growth driver. Kalshi’s integration with Coinbase in January appears to have been a catalyst on the crypto front.
We’ve seen similar trends at Polymarket International, where 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly Bitcoin markets, per our tracking, are approaching half of all crypto Execution Volume.
Newer PM entrants have taken notice, with DraftKings Predictions announcing in late May that it would operate 5-minute Bitcoin markets as part of its Quick Crypto offering (not live at the time of publication).
Short-resolution Bitcoin markets are an early example of how prediction market infrastructure can support increasingly game-like user experiences, potentially broadening participation beyond traditional trading-oriented audiences.
And while still in the early innings, the emergence of short-resolution crypto markets suggests that the next major PM growth chapter may come not just from sports, but from the broader gamification of financial speculation and event trading.
2. NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: NO PM MICRO-MARKETS?
Among the prediction market rules proposed by the CFTC last week was an apparent limitation on micro-markets.
The Commission said bets like “the outcome of a specific pitch thrown by a specific pitcher,” among others, provided “no meaningful information and raised manipulation risk.”
The clarification is a minor blow for DraftKings, which previously talked up its ability to leverage these markets in the PM space.
3. QUOTE OF THE WEEK: ARE PMS MORE PROFITABLE THAN SPORTS BETTING?
DraftKings CFO Alan Ellingson said the above at the Gabelli sports and media symposium last week.
The math can be finagled based on state tax rate, hold rates, trading fees, marketing spend and much, much more, but our own preliminary analysis published in this week’s Prediction Market Monitor found OSB and PMs are roughly equally profitable at around a 31% OSB tax rate.
With New York’s 51% tax rate, PMs are roughly twice as profitable (assuming no changes to marketing spend).